A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
